XRP is back in the spotlight after a sharp uptick in leverage. Over the past week, XRP Futures Open Interest has jumped by more than $1 billion, climbing from $2.42 billion to $3.42 billion, around 4o% jump.
The spike in OI coincided with a price rally from $2.14 to $2.48, showing traders are betting big on XRP’s near-term upside. Now, analysts are grappling to find patterns and explain this drastic jump.
XRP Futures Surge Signals Market Conviction
According to Glassnode’s data (see chart below), this is the sharpest spike since February and now represents the highest Open Interest for XRP Futures in three months.
This signals that traders are opening new positions with conviction. When Open Interest and price rise together, it usually means new money is entering the market.
That being said, it’s always important to note the scale of the move.
XPR’s Volume and Price Discrepancy
While XRP’s price rose by 16% in the past week, Open Interest jumped 41.6%. This imbalance suggests speculative enthusiasm may be outpacing spot buying, raising the possibility of volatility ahead.
The chart also shows this isn’t the first time such a surge has happened. In February, there was a similar rise in leverage just before a short-term correction. This pattern means traders should remain cautious despite the bullish outlook.
ETF Approval Around the Brink?
The surge in Open Interest aligns with growing speculation around an XRP ETF approval. Rumors suggest a decision may arrive as early as June 2025. As traders position themselves ahead of this, leveraged longs have soared.
This speculation ties into a bigger and much wider trend of growing institutional participation. The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in previous years led to price surges and capital inflows, and XRP bulls now expect the same. And prediction markets also support this view. According to Polymarket, there’s a 79% chance of XRP ETF approval in 2025.
As the chart shows, confidence has been building steadily since February, with notable jumps in March and April.
This market-based data highlights a growing belief that regulators are warming up to Ripple’s case. Traders appear to be front-running the news by stacking long futures positions.
Institutional Participation Rises
The scale of the Open Interest surge suggests this isn’t just retail-driven. Analysts believe larger players are stepping in. A billion-dollar increase in contracts usually points to deeper capital inflow.
“When Open Interest rises with price, it’s a sign that new participants are entering the market with conviction,” said a crypto derivatives trader. “This isn’t a retail-driven pump—it has institutional footprints all over it.”
While this rally seems strong, traders should remain aware of potential risks. Whenever leverage spikes, volatility often follows. If the ETF news doesn’t materialize by June, overexposed positions may start to unwind.
Moreover, divergence between price and leverage often precedes corrections. For XRP to sustain current levels—or move higher—spot buying must follow through. If not, the market could see short-term pain before further gains.
What to Watch Next
In the coming weeks, all eyes are on the SEC. A green light for the XRP ETF in June could create much more impact on the prices, but delays or denials might flip sentiment quickly. Traders should also monitor funding rates and long/short ratios across major exchanges.
Ultimately, while the outlook remains bullish, the market’s fate hinges on June’s developments.
Following comments from SEC Chair Paul Atkins hinting at a more innovation-friendly regulatory approach, XRP futures hit $5.5 billion in open interest as traders regained confidence. That shift in tone not only lifted prices but also aligned with the broader ETF narrative building across the market.
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